MOST disgruntled Iranians were expected to boycott today’s parliamentary elections in a show of defiance against an increasingly totalitarian regime.
The ballots were the first since Iranian took to the streets in a mass uprising which ended just over a year ago in February 2023.
At stake is the election of 290 MPs and the influential strong Assembly of Experts , responsible for selecting the next Supreme Leader.
But an extensive survey across Iran’s 31 provinces by the state-sanctioned Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) found that, with no true opposition, the majority of Iranians would stay at home.
According to last month’s survey, less than a third – 30 percent- of Iranians living in rural areas would bother to vote. That number decreased in provincial centres and big cities to just 15 per cent – fewer than one in five – while in the capital city itself, Tehran, it was expected to dwindle to a paltry 5 percent.
This is fewer than the 10 percent of Tehranis who, according to leaked Ministry of Interior documents, voted in 2020 elections.
Though nationwide protests over the death in custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in September 2022 have now simmered, resentment against the regime’s tightening of morality clauses remains high.
And discontent increased further recently following the cyber hacking of a series of explosive government documents by the hactivist group Ghyamsarnegouni.
They revealed the influence that Iran’s military machine holds over its legislature, with more than 3,000 members of the Islamic Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militia now working within parliament’s bureaucracy.
While 70 percent of Iranians continue to live under the poverty line, other documents reveal that MPs – whose selection is now almost completely controlled by the state – now receive astronomical salaries, worth 15 times that paid to the average engineer and 20 times that of a secondary school teacher.
These documents were viewed 5 million times by Iranians on the day of their release.
Following the uprisings of 2018, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has tightened control over the selection of parliamentarians.
Reformists have already been banned since 2020. Now all candidates are screened by several stave security organs, including the elite 12-member Guardian Council – half of which is directly appointed by the Supreme Leader.
According to election law, candidates are only cleared to appear on the ballot if their beliefs and record are unanimously determined to be in alignment with those of the supreme leader.
Such is Khamenei’s insecurity that even Hassan Rouhani, who served as president for eight year and achieved the second-highest number of votes in Tehran for the 5th Assembly of Experts, has been barred from running for the assembly of Experts.
In a recent commentary, state- run newspaper Arman Melli reported: “Officials in charge of the elections are announcing that we want 60 percent participation. But the story seems very different this time compared to the past. It seems that the issue of high participation of the people, which some officials refer to, is simply words, not reality. The clever ones in the government know the facts and must have seen these statistics and surveys.”
Realising the importance of preserving the veneer of legitimacy after mass protests that nearly overthrew the regime, Khamenei has been desperately trying to persuade the people to vote, and appealed directly to a group of first-time voters on Wednesday.
“Those who express dislike for the elections – unfortunately, these kinds of people both express their displeasure and also encourage others not to attend – but I think these people should think more about this issue. Not voting is not useful,” he said.
Speaking last night regional expert Catherine Perez-Shakdam of the ACLS think tank said: “”Iranians are completely disillusioned by the regime, which no longer represents the ambitions of the largely young population. They know there is no real reformist opposition, so they’ll stay at home.
“This is a problem for the regime, which remembers all too clearly how the Shah failed to carry out his White Revolution of reforms because of popular opposition – the same opposition that allowed Ayatollah Khomeini to get a foothold in Iranian affairs. His successor, Ali Khamenei, fears not having popular support will lead the regime to share the Shah’s fate.”
Hossein Abedini, Deputy Director of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) in London, said: “ Ali Khamenei aims to maintain the regime by tightening control and suppressing any form of dissent. But this mass and decisive boycott will make these the most scandalous elections in Iranian history. The regime has run out of ideas, and cannot overcome mass discontent.”
