Rishi Sunak’s Tories are ‘haemorrhaging” votes to Reform UK, a pollster has warned, with the embattled Prime Minister on the ropes after Tuesday night’s significant backbench rebellion – and the resignation of two of his ministers.
Labour’s lead over the Conservative Party is currently a whopping 17 points, according to Savanta’s latest voting intention poll, published this evening (January 16).
The poll sees Labour on 44 percent of the vote, down one point from the week before, and the Conservatives on 27 percent, up by one point in the same period.
Interviews with 2,148 UK adults aged 18 and over took place were conducted over the course of the weekend roughly 60 Tories voted for two amendments to Mr Sunak’s Rwanda Bill, proposed by Robert Jenrick and Sir Bill Cash.
Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith – both deputy chairmen of the party – were among the rebels, and tendered their resignations.
Commenting, Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: “The polling picture for Rishi Sunak has looked bleak ever since he took office, and the first handful of polls in 2024 have been no different.
“As the Prime Minister faces an anxious wait to see the extent of his party’s Rwanda rebellion, it feels like a huge moment in his premiership.”
Mr Hopkins explained: “On the one hand, if he passes the Bill and flights to Rwanda take off, Sunak can evidence to the electorate, including the significant proportion that are haemorrhaging to Reform UK, that he has delivered on an immigration pledge that matters to a large chunk of would-be Tory voters.
“However, if the Bill is defeated or the rebellion is extensive, Sunak continues to look weak and lacking control over his own party.
“The electorate, however unconvinced they may be of Labour, don’t vote for divided parties and weak incumbent Prime Ministers, and a disastrous result in the Commons later today could be the first nail in this government’s coffin ahead of the next election.”
Savanta’s first two polls of 2024 have each shown Labour leads in the high teens, with week-on-week change well within the statistical margin of error. If replicated at a General Election, such a result would see a large Labour majority.
However, only one Savanta poll since mid-November 2023 has shown a Labour vote share at 45 percent or higher, and both main parties have been averaging a lower vote share in Savanta polls since December than they were in Autumn 2023.
Breaking down the 2019 Conservative vote in this poll, Rishi Sunak’s party seems to be retaining just six in ten (60 percent) of their voters from the last election.
About one in seven (14 percent) say they would directly switch to Labour, while about one in 10 say that they are either undecided (nine percent) or would vote for Reform UK, led by Richard Tice and counts Nigel Farage as its honorary president, on 11 percent.
Speaking about the ministerial resignations, a Downing Street source said: “The PM accepts their resignation and thanks both Lee and Brendan for their dedication and hard work for the Conservative Party.
“This is the toughest legislation ever brought before Parliament to tackle illegal migration. This Bill will make it clear that if you come here illegally, you will not be able to stay.
“We must pass this Bill to deliver what all Conservatives want – a credible plan to stop the boats.”
