Russia’s offensive against Ukraine may, over the next few wintry months, focus more on political disruption and propaganda than on military offensive, according to a geopolitical analyst.
As the upcoming freezing weather will inevitably slow down manoeuvres on the battlefield, the Kremlin could try to weaken Ukraine on other fronts, likely taking aim at its alliance with Western nations.
Geopolitical commentator and president at Scarab Rising. Inc, Irina Tsukerman believes there are three ways in which Russia could try and hurt Kyiv without launching direct attacks against its Ukrainian troops.
One attempt, she argued, could be carried out through political lobbies, influence campaigns and propaganda aimed at curbing the military assistance directed at Ukraine from its Western allies.
Ms Tsukerman told Express.co.uk: “A slowdown in funding and weapons would deal a psychological blow to Ukraine and force it to change priorities, which could also mean changes to its combat strategy.
“That includes spreading scepticism about the success of the counteroffensive as well, but also playing on other talking points such as corruption, expenses, and the ‘endless wars’ mantra.”
Despite members of the US Congress being at loggerheads in recent weeks over agreeing to further military aid for Ukraine and a growing sense of war fatigue across Europe, Ukraine continues to be able to rely on its Western allies.
Earlier this week, it emerged the US had delivered the country long-range ATACMS missiles, likely to boost Ukraine’s offensive.
Russia, Ms Tsukerman believes, may also be also looking to “play up internal grievances in Ukraine” and to “undermine Zelensky’s authority”, a move that could produce bad press for the Ukrainian President and distract from his relentless campaigning in favour of his country and military successes on the battlefield.
A third tactic, the analyst added could consist in “sowing mayhem” across Europe.
She said: “The other way to disrupt the ongoing operations is by sowing mayhem and starting related and unrelated military campaigns in various locations which will make it difficult for NATO to focus and continue the supply of weapons and strategic support.”
The geopolitical expert cited an escalation in the Balkans, border skirmishes against Poland or Lithuania or cyberwars – as well as “opening up an additional front in Ukraine by attacking from an unexpected direction” – as ways for Russia to pursue this potential strategy.
She said: “Such a move could split Russian forces and stretch its resources even more but could catch Ukrainians by surprise and make it more difficult to adjust and commit to breaching the defences”.
Ms Tsukerman concluded: “But the easiest strategy for the Russians is to send additional forces to the front lines of the counteroffensive and to wear out the Ukrainians as much as possible over a long time, while focusing on building pressure for concessions globally and looking to acquire additional resources to reinforce its own combat capability from other countries.”
