China’s population has declined for a second consecutive year, ringing alarm bells about the future growth of the world’s second-largest economy. Data released on Wednesday revealed a population of 1.409 billion at the end of 2023, reflecting a significant 2.08 million decrease from 2022.
The recent decline is twice that of the previous year, marking the second consecutive year of a population drop after six decades of consistent growth. Experts attribute this decline to China’s expanding urban class and a record-low birth rate.
“This fall is expected given the country’s expanding urban class and record-low birth rate,” Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten, a population policy expert at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, told the BBC. “It’s kind of locked in now… this is just the next year in this new era of population stagnation or decline for China.”
Beijing confirmed on Wednesday that the birth rate had fallen to 6.39 per 1,000 people, now comparable to other advanced East Asian nations such as Japan and South Korea. The decline in birth rates has been a long-standing issue, stemming from the controversial one-child policy introduced in the 1980s. The government lifted the policy in 2015, but subsequent incentives, including subsidies and payments, have had little impact.
Despite the efforts to encourage childbirth, young people in modern cities cite deterrents like the high cost of living and career priorities, exacerbated by the three-year impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Experts suggest that while the pandemic accelerated the decline in new births, the underlying economic issues, particularly China’s ongoing property crisis, falling consumer spending, and record youth unemployment, play a more significant role.
“It’s not a surprise. They’ve got one of the lowest fertility rates in the world so this is just what happens – the population stops growing and starts to decline,” explained Professor Gietel-Basten.
China’s economic challenges came to the forefront in 2023, marked by a widespread property crisis, falling consumer spending, and record youth joblessness. Annual data released on Wednesday confirmed the struggles, revealing the economy grew at one of its slowest rates in over three decades, with GDP expanding at 5.2 percent to reach 126 trillion yuan ($17.5tn; £13.8tn) in 2023.
This marked the weakest performance since 1990, excluding the pandemic years, with a record-low 3 percent GDP growth rate in 2022. China also reported that the youth unemployment rate for December was 14.1 percent, after hitting 21.3 percent in June.
China faces increasing pressure on its healthcare and pension systems as its retiree population is projected to grow by 60 percent to 400 million by 2035.
