In a significant shift of maritime power dynamics, China now boasts the world’s largest navy – surpassing the United States and leaving Britain a mere ‘shadow of its former self.’
The rise of China’s naval prowess is exemplified by its shipyards, which reportedly have a capacity of more than 21 million gross tonnes. This dwarfs the mere 100,000 estimated for the United States.
Japan and South Korea are expected to contribute to narrowing this maritime capability gap. The decline in European navies is stark – with a notable reduction of 28 percent in submarines and 32 percent in frigates and destroyers between 1999 and 2018, according to insights from The Economist.
This comes at a time when global reliance on maritime trade is reaching new heights, with approximately 80 percent of global trade by volume and 50 percent by value conducted via sea routes.
Recent geopolitical events underscore the vulnerability of sea lanes to disruption. Examples of this include the COVID-19 pandemic, the Suez Canal blockage by the Ever Given, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and Houthi missile strikes in the Red Sea.
Each of these events has demonstrated the potential repercussions of interruptions to global shipping. China’s expansionist actions in the South China Sea, using militarised fishing fleets to intimidate neighbouring countries, are thought to highlight a new era of naval preparedness.
The United States responded by deploying an aircraft carrier to conduct joint exercises with the Philippines, indicating a shift towards preparing for potential naval confrontations.
As nations brace for a return to a more competitive naval landscape, there is a discernible trend towards larger and better-armed ships. Submarines, in particular, are gaining significance due to their ability to operate covertly and their technological edge over potential adversaries like Russia and China.
The recent AUKUS deal, involving Australia, the US, and the UK, underscores the growing emphasis on naval firepower.
Analysts suggest that high-intensity naval warfare is becoming a focal point, with larger ships and advanced weaponry being prioritised. The prospect of a blockade in the event of a conflict in Asia, such as over Taiwan, is a growing concern. Reports indicate that such a blockade, especially if enforced by China, could have profound implications for the outcome of the conflict.
In this evolving naval landscape, questions about the readiness and capabilities of existing naval forces arise. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East serve as reminders of how naval power can be strategically employed in major conflicts, emphasising the importance of a robust and adaptable maritime strategy in the face of geopolitical uncertainties.
