Kemi Badenoch today blasts the Brexit doom-mongers after a report shows leaving the EU has boosted UK trade.
The Business and Trade Secretary will use a keynote speech to “talk up” the economy which she says is “thriving” thanks to new trade freedoms.
And Mrs Badenoch will rail against those who insist freeing Britain from the shackles of Brussels has “severely damaged” the economy.
It comes as a landmark study released today shows goods and services exports soared between 2019 and 2022.
The Institute of Economic Affairs report reveals that UK goods exports rose by 13.5% to EU countries and 14.3% to non-EU nations during that period, which covers before and after Britain left the EU.
UK services exports rose by 14.8% to EU countries and 22.1% to non-EU nations, the report shows.
22.1% to non-EU nations, the report shows. In a blockbuster start to November, Ms Badenoch has already revealed she will be signing a major £1trillion trade deal with Florida later this month.
The US state is America’s fourth biggest economy and would be in the top 15 nations in the world if it was a country.
Ms Badenoch is also due to start trade talks with Turkey shortly.
The minister says Britain is “surging” towards its goal of securing £1trillion of exports by 2030.
And it comes as a mega free trade agreement with India is on the horizon after the UK joined the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Part-nership (CPTPP) trade bloc this year – the biggest post-Brexit deal of all.
In a speech today at International Trade Week’s launch event, Mrs Badenoch is expected to declare the IEA report’s findings prove Brexit is working and the naysayers are wrong.
She will say: “This is why I just don’t agree with the narrative that Brexit has ‘severely damaged’ our economy. Every major country, especially in Europe, has faced significant economic challenges.
“We should stop talking ourselves down and instead talk ourselves up.”
The minister will underline that the data shows “Brexit has not had a major impact on UK–EU trade”.
She will add: “UK trade with EU countries has broadly moved in line with UK trade with non-EU countries.” Mrs Badenoch says official figures confirm goods exports are back to pre-Brexit and pre-Covid levels. Britain also remains the second largest service exporter in the G7.
She will add: “Britain is growing faster than Germany and France.
“Our tech sector is thriving, with more unicorns than France and Germany combined. And our manufacturing sector has overtaken France to be the eighth biggest in the world. This is what I want to talk about.
“This is also why, when talking about commerce and industry, we have to deploy critical thinking and apply principles of free and open trade. This is the essence of what International Trade Week should be about – celebrating our success.”
Before Britain left the EU the Office for Budget Responsibility asserted that Brexit barriers would result in a 15% drop in trade volumes, contributing to a 4% lower GDP in the long run. But now, according to the IEA report, real-world trade data is painting an entirely different picture.
Report author and economist, Catherine McBride, who writes in today’s Daily Express, said: “While the data is still emerging and longer-term effects are as-yet unknowable, in general, there has been no real disparity between UK trade with EU and non-EU countries.
“Nor has there been a sharp fall in UK–EU trade at the aggregate or sector level, despite it now being seven years since the vote to leave the EU and three years since the UK left.”
Ms McBride highlights how factors such as the pandemic, rising energy prices and new “rules of origin” have influenced trading patterns, but also there is no evidence of overall adverse Brexit effects. She attributes the resilience of UK trade with the EU to the 2020 tariff-free and quota-free Trade and Co-operation Agreement.
Dire predictions about the impact of exiting the EU also fail to account for opportunities with countries outside of the bloc, provided by deals with Australia and New Zealand, CPTPP membership, ongoing negotiations with India and the Gulf Co-operation Council and updated agreements with Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Switzerland and Turkey. Ms McBride said: “A false narrative that Brexit has harmed UK trade is now firmly entrenched in the British psyche. The trade data doesn’t show this.”
