Vladimir Putin finds himself “boxed” without good options to salvage his position 17 months into the Ukraine war.
Emeritus Professor of War Studies at Kings College London Lawrence Freedman noted the Russian president isn’t “close to achieving any of his war aims” while his country and military have been paying a high price for the deadly venture against Kyiv.
A moment of national reckoning, the expert argued, would likely come at the end of the conflict should Putin accept a ceasefire on current positions.
But there is also a chance people in the Kremlin may want to close in on Putin before he can put an end to the war against Ukraine.
Professor Freedman wrote in Foreign Affairs: “Putin must face an even more disturbing possibility: suppose the reckoning cannot be postponed and comes before a definitive end to the fighting, not afterwards.
“All trends—military, economic, diplomatic—continue to point in the wrong direction, and Putin has no convincing explanation for how the situation can be salvaged.
“The Russian president finds himself boxed in with no good options. He may indeed already be aware that the reckoning has begun.”
As noted by the expert, Russia is in a worse economic position than it was before the war, as it has been hit by a barrage of sanctions severely targeting, among others, its oligarchs and energy exports.
The aims to “denazify” Ukraine, which likely meant changing its leadership, and demilitarising it have also failed, Professor Freedman said.
President Volodymyr Zelensky is now loved and acclaimed not just in his country but also around the world, and thanks to his resilience and Western support Ukraine is becoming one of the most militarised nations in the world.
As the Ukrainian counter-offensive marches on, Putin seems to have not only failed to cement Russia’s control on the Ukrainian areas first invaded in February 2022, but also appears to be at risk of losing Crimea, first invaded by Russia in 2014.
NATO, meanwhile, has expanded its borders and the Western alliance has pledged to eventually admit also Ukraine, the opposite of what Putin aimed for with his war.
Moreover, Russian territory has been the target of attacks in recent months, although Kyiv hasn’t claimed responsibility for most of them.
Just in the past week, Moscow was hit by several unmanned drones which Russia said had been launched by the Ukrainian government.
The Belgorod region, which neighbours Ukraine, has also been reportedly shelled several times.
Professor Freedman warned: “Failure in war can cause a government to fall.”
