Joe Biden’s huge military aid package for Taiwan is unlikely to deter China from invading the island as the threat of a conflict still remains, an analyst told Daily Express US.
The President announced a major package of military aid worth an estimated £275 million ($345 million) for Taiwan last week, including defense, education and training.
The White House and the Pentagon had come under intense pressure from Congress members to support the self-governed island nation with additional weapons in the hope that Beijing would consider the price of invading the territory across the Taiwan Strait too high.
But, according to former Defense Intelligence Agency officer Matt Shoemaker, the chances the new military package will repel an invasion are low.
When asked whether Chinese leader Xi Jinping would be deterred, he told Daily Express US: “Definitely not.”
He added that “what this means regarding the fears of American and Chinese conflict over Taiwan is that the threat for conflict is still there.”
Washington is likely to send man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, intelligence and surveillance capabilities, firearms and missiles, according to two US officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
But Shoemaker says that the core specifics of the roughly £275 million transfer of military kit to Taiwan are “being kept under wraps”.
However, there is speculation that it will include up to four older MQ-9A reconnaissance drones and small arms which would only be of “modest assistance to Taiwan in the event of an invasion”.
Shoemaker said: “Reconnaissance drones are simply ISR platforms to take pictures or gather intelligence relating to where enemy activity is. It is a non-kinetic asset meaning it won’t destroy enemy hardware or positions.”
He added: “It is not considered a deterrent piece of military hardware. If anything, this transfer of hardware is meant to send a message to Beijing rather than notably improve Taiwanese defenses. The likely message intended is ‘we are still here defending Taiwan. Don’t do anything foolish’.”
The package is in addition to nearly £16 billion ($19 billion) in military sales of F-16s and other major weapons systems that the US has approved for Taiwan.
The difference is that this aid is part of a presidential authority approved by Congress last year to draw weapons from current US military stockpiles — so Taiwan will not have to wait for military production and sales. This means weapons are delivered faster than providing funding for new weapons.
According to Paul Bracken, professor of management and political science at the Yale School of Management, US arms sales to Taiwan are “more of a political signal than they are an escalation”.
He told Daily Express US: “Washington is saying ‘look, we know what you’re doing with your huge navy expansion, nuclear buildup, and immense missile force. The US won’t be caught unprepared by this, even though we’re supplying arms to Ukraine for their war with Russia.”
The White House has ramped up the rate at which it has assisted the self-governing island, which split from Beijing in 1949 following a civil war.
Beijing has warned Washington that inferring with Taiwan’s future is the “first red line”, but the White House has threatened to step in if China attempts to take the island it claims sovereignty over by force.
Now, relations have sunk to a historic low as tensions reach boiling point. According to top US Air Force general Michael A. Minihan, a war could break out with China in as little as two years.
He said such a scenario could play out by 2025, a memo leaked by one of its recipients in January revealed.
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